Jul 31, 2022
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When we first calculate the amount of change in the experimental group and the control group within two years, and then compare the "change in the amount of change" between the two, this gap may come from riots. This research method is called Difference in Difference Design. Illustration of struggle effect Author provided Using this calculation method, the author calculates that, on average, for the 1,676 constituencies in Los Angeles affected by the riots, the percentage of votes in favor of the public and small budget referendums increased by 4.9% more than the percentage of university budget referendums. % (95% confidence interval is 3.7% to 6.0%). This additional whatsapp database increase, the author believes, is due to violent protests, which has led people to pay more attention to racial issues, so they are willing to vote for a public small budget increase that is more helpful to African Americans. In short, violent protest works, and violent protest reduces racism. Of course, this result may have various explanations, so the author will spend a lot of effort in calculating various possible mechanisms and verifications. First, if violent protests affect public opinion, the more violent the protests, the more changes in public opinion. Indeed, the author estimated the degree of influence of the people according to how close the 1676 constituencies were to the center of violence, And found that the distance was significantly correlated with the amount of change in the impact of votes. The closer to the center of violent protests, the more people turned. And support the public small budget increase. The impact of the struggle Author provided If the support vote for the public small budget increases, who will vote? The author first calculates the ratio of whites to blacks in each constituency (the author obtains the electoral rolls for each constituency, and then infers race based on names, because there is no racial data on the rolls.